Trump’s Second Act: Will the World Adapt or Be Reshaped?

As the world watches the unfolding political landscape in the United States, one question looms large: What would a second Trump presidency mean for global stability? The international community is bracing for potentially seismic shifts in foreign policy, with implications ranging from Israel’s security to U.S.-China trade wars, NATO cohesion, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University has assembled leading experts to analyze what a second Trump term could bring. Their research reveals that while some policies may see continuity, significant disruptions are also on the horizon.

Israel and the Middle East: A New Reality?

Trump’s first presidency saw bold moves in the Middle East, including the Abraham Accords and U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. His return to the White House could further reshape the region. While many in Israel recall his tenure as one of strong support, experts caution that his second term may not follow the same script. Trump’s transactional approach to alliances and his reduced need to appease evangelical voters could lead to new, unpredictable challenges.

Iran: Tougher Sanctions, Uncertain Outcomes

Iran’s leadership is closely watching Trump’s potential return. His “maximum pressure” campaign pushed Tehran’s economy to the brink, and his administration’s hawkish advisors suggest that sanctions and military posturing would escalate once more. But would this pressure bring Iran to the negotiating table or push it toward further nuclear expansion? The stakes are higher than ever.

Europe and NATO: The Alliance in Question

One of the most pressing concerns for European allies is Trump’s previous skepticism toward NATO. With his America-first stance, European leaders fear reduced U.S. commitment to the alliance at a time when tensions with Russia remain high. A potential shift in U.S. support for Ukraine could also redefine the war’s trajectory and Europe’s defense strategies.

China and the Indo-Pacific: A Trade War 2.0?

Trump’s first presidency initiated a tough stance on China, marked by tariffs and a push to limit Chinese technological influence. A second term might see a revival of aggressive economic measures, with significant consequences for global markets. India, as a strategic counterbalance to China, may find itself in a stronger position, but the broader Indo-Pacific region will have to navigate an increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship.

What Comes Next?

With a return to the White House, Trump’s policies could range from strengthening alliances with key partners to drastically reducing U.S. engagement in global conflicts. While the world has seen a Trump presidency before, the second act could be even more unpredictable.

For a comprehensive analysis of these potential global shifts, download the full report from Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.