Assassinations Are Making Sinwar Tremble; Survival is the Only Things on His Mind

Sinwar's acquaintances testify that his personal desire to survive is stronger than everything, and targeted eliminations may change his hiding patterns. The tango with Hezbollah also continues, raising the question of who will lead the dance.

Within six hours, two central figures from Iranian proxy organizations were eliminated - Fouad Shukur, known as Hezbollah's Chief of Staff and Nasrallah's right-hand man. Shortly after, in the dead of night, the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran. Both assassinations demonstrated high and precise intelligence capabilities, alongside real-time operational closure, which enabled the targeting of both senior officials. Israel took responsibility for the first assassination, Shukur's elimination, even noting it was in response to the killing of 12 children in Majdal Shams. The concept behind this assassination, on one hand, is to create an equation with Hezbollah emphasizing that its actions will not go unanswered, and that Israel will not sit idly by in the face of the organization's aggression. This is despite Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets and UAVs towards Israel since the beginning of the Iron Swords war, burning its fields, hitting homes, and causing the deaths of civilians and soldiers.

The political and security echelons in Israel are not interested in escalation on the northern border. The defence establishment prefers to deal with the Hamas threat, to defeat and topple its rule, and to bring the hostages home. The IDF is capable of fighting at high intensity on two main fronts but does not want to do so. As it is, the IDF is fighting in Gaza and the West Bank simultaneously, and occasionally intercepting missiles and munitions from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Hezbollah, on the other side of the border, is trying to hold the stick at both ends. On one hand, Iran is pressuring it to act intensively against Israel, and it's important for the organization to show solidarity with Gaza. On the other hand, it's a weakened organization in an unsuccessful political situation, with Iranian aid cut by almost half since COVID (a decrease of about $300 million each year). This combination of factors, along with the difficult state of the Lebanese economy, puts domestic pressure on it not to start a war.

If there's a high-intensity war, from Hezbollah's perspective, it's better if Israel starts it - so there's someone to blame. Therefore, both sides are dancing a tango, while both wanting and not wanting a war at the current timing. In this situation, the assassination of Fouad Shukur is, at least tactically, an excellent move by Israel. It signals to Hezbollah and its leaders that they are vulnerable, and that the IDF can reach any of them, even in the heart of Beirut. It's revenge for the killing of the children - but one that passes the ball to Hezbollah's court, aiming to provoke a measured response that won't further ignite the arena and spark a large-scale war.

The assassination of Haniyeh in the heart of the Iranian regime is an amazing operational action. Israel has not taken responsibility for it, although leaders of Iran, Hamas, and Arab countries have already blamed Israel, while the U.S. has already announced it had no involvement in the assassination.

Images of the destroyed building indicate that it wasn't a drone or anti-tank missile that hit the building, but a missile or UAV carrying a large warhead, launched from afar (from sea or air), or a bomb planted on site. It's also possible that the assassination was carried out by Haniyeh's opponents, Iranian opposition elements, or even Qatar. Either way - Haniyeh's assassination has made Sinwar, hiding somewhere in Gaza, the supreme leader of Hamas - even if a replacement for Haniyeh is quickly found in the organization's political bureau.

The assassinations of Haniyeh, Shukur, and Mohammed Deif are making Sinwar tremble. Some of his acquaintances testify that his personal desire to survive is stronger than everything, and the assassinations are likely changing his hiding patterns.

It should be remembered that the ceasefire negotiations Israel has conducted so far were carried out with the encouragement of Qatar and Egypt, and were managed by Haniyeh, who was not authorized to conduct them. In this way, Hamas managed to fool the public, further shake and rattle Israeli society from within, and incite the world against Israel. The strategy was to drag out time and not reach results, at least until the U.S. elections. As evidence, after the televised confrontation between Biden and Trump, and Biden's defeat in the confrontation - Hamas quickly returned to negotiations, understanding that Biden is preferable to them over Trump.

Haniyeh's assassination is not expected, in my assessment, to delay the negotiation process. Alongside the military action in the Strip, it works in Israel's favor in the pressure it exerts on Sinwar and the rest of the organization's command levels. It's crucial for Israel to continue with the military pressure while negotiations for the return of the hostages continue under Qatar's auspices.

In light of the processes in the American political system, which have a great influence on what's happening in our arena, it will be important to conclude negotiations under terms that will benefit Israel strategically, maintain its security, and return the hostages to their families during the next two months, before the U.S. elections.

This article was written by Dr. Eyal Pinko of BIU’s department of Political Studies and originally published by Walla.